Strong lensing optical depths in a Λ CDM universe

We investigate strong gravitational lensing in the concordance ΛCDM cosmology by carrying out ray-tracing along past light cones through the Millennium Simulation, the largest simulation of cosmic structure formation ever carried out. We extend previous ray-tracing methods in order to take full advantage of the large volume and the excellent spatial and mass resolution of the simulation. As a function of source redshift we evaluate the probability that an image will be highly magnified, will be highly elongated or will be one of a set of multiple images. We show that such strong lensing events can almost always be traced to a single dominant lensing object and we study the mass and redshift distribution of these primary lenses. We fit analytic models to the simulated dark halos in order to study how our optical depth measurements are affected by the limited resolution of the simulation and of the lensing planes that we construct from it. We conclude that such effects lead us to underestimate total stronglensing cross sections by about 15%. This is smaller than the effects expected from our neglect of the baryonic components of galaxies. Finally we investigate whether strong lensing is enhanced by material in front of or behind the primary lens. Although strong lensing lines-of-sight are indeed biased towards higher than average mean densities, this additional matter typically contributes only a few percent of the total surface density.